THE BUSH PLAN:

On June 24, 2002, President Bush set forth the conditions that the Palestinian Arabs must fulfill in order to merit U.S. support for the creation of a Palestinian Arab state. Among the major obligations are that the Palestinian Arabs must “dismantle the terrorist infrastructure,” “end incitement,” “elect new leaders not compromised by terror,” and unequivocally embrace democracy and free market economics.

This report analyzes Palestinian Arab actions during the fourth week following President Bush’s speech, July 16-July 22, 2002.

I. “Dismantle the Terrorist Infrastructure”

What They Must Do: President Bush said that the Palestinian Arabs must “engage in a sustained fight against the terrorists and dismantle their infrastructure.” Those terms were previously defined in the Oslo and Wye accords as including arresting and imprisoning terrorists; shutting down bomb factories; seizing terrorists’ weapons; extraditing terrorists to Israel; punishing factions of the PLO that engage in terrorism; and outlawing terrorist groups.

What They Did During Week #4:

A. No Terrorists Arrested: There were no reports of terrorists being arrested or imprisoned.

B. No Terrorists Extradited: The PA continued to ignore Israel’s 45 requests for the extradition of terrorists.

C. No Terror Groups Outlawed: The PA did not outlaw Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah, or any other terrorist groups.

D. No Terrorists’ Weapons Seized: There were no reports of the PA seizing terrorists’ weapons.

E. No Closure of Bomb Factories: There were no reports of the PA shutting down any bomb factories. By contrast, Israeli forces destroyed a Hamas bomb factory in Dir al Balah on July 17.

F. No Punishing of PLO Terror Factions: There were no reports of the PLO leadership punishing PLO factions that are engaged in terrorism, such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP).

G. New Terrorist Attacks: Throughout Week #4, Israeli forces were engaged in “Operation Determined Stand,” resulting in a sharp decrease in terrorist attacks. Nevertheless, there were at least 19 terrorist attacks or attempted attacks, in which 14 people were murdered and 76 wounded:

July 15-16: Two missile launchers discovered and dismantled near the Kisufim crossing…A terrorist was intercepted on his way to carry out an attack, north of the Kisufim crossing…A terrorist preparing a suicide attack was arrested near Jenin…Bombing and shooting attack on bus passengers near Emanuel; 10 murdered, 22 wounded…Bomb discovered and dismantled in the southern Mediterranan Coastal area…Bomb discovered and dismantled near Shilo…Shooting attacks on Israeli Army positions near Netzarim and Neve Dekalim.

July 17: Terrorists shot at soldiers near Emanuel; 1 murdered, 3 wounded.

July 18: Suicide bombing in Tel Aviv; 3 murdered, 45 wounded.

July 19: Mortar fired at a Jewish neighborhood in Gaza…Bomb discovered and dismantled near the Karni checkpoint…Shooting attack on the town of Kadim.

July 20: Ten terrorists arrested, in Hebron, near Shechem (Nablus), and elsewhere, while preparing more attacks.

July 21: Bomb attack on an Israeli train in the Rehovot-Yavneh area; 1 wounded…..Three bomb attacks on Israelis in Samaria.

July 22: Two terrorists intercepted on their way to an attack near Tel Katifa; their shots wounded two Israeli soldiers…Mortar attack on a Jewish neighborhood in northern Gaza.

II. “End Incitement”

What They Must Do: President Bush stated that the Palestinian Arabs must “end incitement to violence in official media and publicly denounce homicide bombings.”

What They Did During Week #4:

The PA’s official newspapers, television, and radio continued to broadcast a steady stream of anti-Israel, anti-American, and pro-violence incitement, and PA officials continues to make inciting statements.

For example, on July 18, the PA held a public ceremony to honor suicide bombers, at which PA Cabinet Minister Imad Faluji personally distributed checks from Iraq, for thousands of dollars, to families of the bombers.1

On July 19, PA Television and PA Radio both broadcast a sermon from Sheikh Ijlin Mosque in Gaza, delivered by Sheikh Ahmad Abd al-Raziq, in which he said that “Allah has afflicted us,” but it would not have happened “had Muslims carried out Allah’s orders forjihad, and not listened to this empty talk about peace.”2

III. “Elect New Leaders Not Compromised by Terror”

What They Must Do: President Bush stated that the Palestinian Arabs must hold “fair multiparty elections by the end of the year, with national elections to follow,” in which they “elect new leaders, leaders not compromised by terror.”

What They Did During Week #4: Shortly after President Bush’s speech, the PA announced that it will hold elections for chairman of the PA and members of the Palestinian Legislative Council in January 2003, if Israel withdraws from various parts of Judea, Samaria, and Gaza.3 It remains to be seen whether those elections, if held, will be free and fair, as President Bush has urged, or will be marred by ballot-stuffing and intimidation of voters and potential non-PLO candidates, as were the last PA elections, in 1996.

IV. “Build Democracy Based on Tolerance and Liberty”

What They Must Do: President Bush said that the Palestinian Arabs must “build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty,” with “a new constitution” and “a truly independent judiciary. He said they must “confront corruption,” and “the Palestinian parliament should have the full authority of a legislative body.” They must implement “market economics,”

and create “a vibrant economy where honest enterprise is encouraged by honest government.” In addition, there must be “an externally supervised effort to rebuild and reform the Palestinian security services” with “clear lines of authority and accountability and a unified chain of command.”

What They Did During Week #4:

The PA continues to claim that it is in the process of implementing what it describes as a “100-day reform plan,” but experts doubt that the reforms will be genuine. Robert Satloff of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said of the plan: “While it offers promising elements of change, the plan is only likely to strengthen the unacceptable status quo.”4

1 Middle East Newsline, July 19, 2002.
2 FBIS, July 21, 2002.
3 New York Times, June 27, 2002.
4 Middle East Newsline, July 9, 2002.