THE BUSH PLAN:

On June 24, 2002, President Bush set forth the conditions that the Palestinian Arabs must fulfill in order to merit U.S. support for the creation of a Palestinian Arab state. Among the major obligations are that the Palestinian Arabs must “dismantle the terrorist infrastructure,” “end incitement,” “elect new leaders not compromised by terror,” and unequivocally embrace democracy and free market economics.

This report analyzes Palestinian Arab actions during the tenth week following President Bush’s speech, September 3-9, 2002.

I. “Dismantle the Terrorist Infrastructure”

What They Must Do: President Bush said that the Palestinian Arabs must “engage in a sustained fight against the terrorists and dismantle their infrastructure.” Those terms were previously defined in the Oslo and Wye accords as including arresting and imprisoning terrorists; shutting down bomb factories; seizing terrorists’ weapons; extraditing terrorists to Israel; punishing factions of the PLO that engage in terrorism; and outlawing terrorist groups.

What They Did During Week #11:

A. No Terrorists Arrested: There were no reports of terrorists being arrested or imprisoned.

B. No Terrorists Extradited: The PA continued to ignore Israel’s 45 requests for the extradition of terrorists.

C. No Terror Groups Outlawed: The PA did not outlaw Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah, or any other terrorist groups.

D. No Terrorists’ Weapons Seized: There were no reports of the PA seizing terrorists’ weapons.

E. No Closing of Bomb Factories: There were no reports of the PA shutting down any bomb factories. By contrast, on September 6, Israeli helicopters struck a weapons factory in the Gaza city of Khan Yunis.

F. No Punishing of PLO Terror Factions: There were no reports of the PLO leadership punishing PLO factions that are engaged in terrorism, such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP).

G. New Terrorist Attacks: Throughout Week #11, Israeli forces were engaged in “Operation Determined Stand,” resulting in a sharp decrease in terrorist attacks. Nevertheless, there were at least 34 terrorist attacks or attempted attacks during the week of September 3-9, in which 2 people were murdered and 7 wounded:

September 3: Grenade attack on an Israeli Army outpost in Gaza; one soldier wounded … Grenade attack on Israeli soldiers at the Tarmit outpost near Rafiah … Shooting attack on an Israeli motorist near Ramallah; one Israeli wounded … Attacks on Israeli motorists traveling on Route 443 between Jerusalem and Modi’in … Attacks on Israeli motorists traveliing on the Gush Etzion-Hussan bypass road … Three mortar attacks on Jewish neighborhoods in Gaza … Grenade attack on Israeli soldiers at the Kisufim Junction … Grenade attack on Israeli soldiers stationed near Kfar Darom … Grenade attack on Israeli soldiers near Ganei Tal … Arson attack on a Mekorot Water Company water installation at the Shoket Junction.

September 4: Two mortar attacks on the Israeli town of Kfar Darom … Mortar attack on the Israeli town of Gadid … Two bombs discovered and dismantled in the town of Kochav Yair … Shooting attack on Israeli soldiers near Salfit … Bomb attack on an Israeli Army vehicle near Sa-Nur … Three terrorists intercepted in Shechem (Nablus) while preparing a suicide attack … A terrorist intercepted north of Tulkarm while preparing a suicide attack.

September 5: A car bomb packed with over 1,000 pounds of explosives was intercepted on it way to an attack near Haifa … Arab terrorist snipers situated in a northern Gaza school building filled with children carried out a shooting attack on an Israeli Army jeep; one soldier was killed and one wounded … Bomb attack on an Israeli tank near the Kisfuim Junction; one soldier was killed and three wounded … Mortar attack on a Jewish neighborhood in Gaza.

September 6: Shooting attack on Israeli soldiers in Jenin.

September 8: Bomb attack on Israeli soldiers in Hebron … Grenades and shooting attack on Israeli soldiers at the Tarmit outpost in southern Gaza … Attack on Israeli soldiers in Hebron; one wounded … Bomb attack on an Israeli Army jeep in the Samaria region … Shooting attack on Israeli soldiers in Shechem (Nablus).

September 9: Two Arab terrorists intercepted on their way to plant a bomb in Israel … Two mortar attacks on Jewish neighborhoods in Gaza … Another arson attack on a Mekorot Water Company water installation at the Shoket Junction.

II. “End Incitement”

What They Must Do: President Bush stated that the Palestinian Arabs must “end incitement to violence in official media and publicly denounce homicide bombings.”

What They Did During Week #11:

The PA’s official newspapers, television, and radio continued to broadcast a steady stream of anti-Israel, anti-American, and pro-violence incitement, and PA officials continues to make inciting statements.

For example, in a speech to the PA’s Legislative Council in Ramallah, on September 9, Arafat said, “Each of us wants to be a holy martyr in our struggle for independence.” While saying he opposes suicide attacks against “civilians” within Israel’s pre-1967 borders, Arafat expressed no opposition to murdering Israeli soldiers within the 1967 borders and no opposition to murdering Israeli civilians (including women and children) in areas beyond the 1967 lines, such as Jerusalem’s Western Wall. Indeed, Arafat again endorsed what he called “legitimate resistance to conquest.”

III. “Elect New Leaders Not Compromised by Terror”

What They Must Do: President Bush stated that the Palestinian Arabs must hold “fair multiparty elections by the end of the year, with national elections to follow,” in which they “elect new leaders, leaders not compromised by terror.”

What They Did During Week #11: Shortly after President Bush’s speech, the PA announced that it will hold elections for chairman of the PA and members of the Palestinian Legislative Council in January 2003, if Israel withdraws from various parts of Judea, Samaria, and Gaza.1 It remains to be seen whether those elections, if held, will be free and fair, as President Bush has urged, or will be marred by ballot-stuffing and intimidation of voters and potential non-PLO candidates, as were the last PA elections, in 1996.

IV. “Build Democracy Based on Tolerance and Liberty”

What They Must Do: President Bush said that the Palestinian Arabs must “build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty,” with “a new constitution” and “a truly independent judiciary. He said they must “confront corruption,” and “the Palestinian parliament should have the full authority of a legislative body.” They must implement “market economics,” and create “a vibrant economy where honest enterprise is encouraged by honest government.” In addition, there must be “an externally supervised effort to rebuild and reform the Palestinian security services” with “clear lines of authority and accountability and a unified chain of command.”

What They Did During Week #11:

The PA continues to claim that it is in the process of implementing what it describes as a “100-day reform plan,” but experts doubt that the reforms will be genuine. Robert Satloff of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said of the plan: “While it offers promising elements of change, the plan is only likely to strengthen the unacceptable status quo.”2

1 New York Times, June 27, 2002. 2 Middle East Newsline, July 9, 2002.